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Turn raw data into powerful market insights using the “probit model” in Excel. We step you through a simple example—complete with Excel files—to help you calculate the probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. Analyzing the numbers can be very revealing.
Instead of relying on the media or economists to tell you when the market is about to tank, create a list of indicators that can help you monitor the biggest risk factor of all: recessions.
The Fed’s regional survey data provides timely clues about the U.S. business cycle—and comes out even earlier than the more popular ISM Manufacturing Index. To get ahead of new developments, check out these links—and their underlying economic releases—from the Fed’s regional banks.
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