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Autoregression-based predictions can help squeeze better forecasts out of history.
The fourth-quarter GDP report was explosive, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is 30% undervalued. However, the market can stay undervalued for a long, long time. There are two confirming indicators that can help you decide when it's safe to jump back into equities—and when it's prudent to stay out.
Consider carefully how you use projections in building your clients' financial plans. Complicated analytics may seem beneficial, but there is a lot of wisdom in simple metrics like "target rate of return."
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