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Economists are finding that combining factors—like dividend yield and the yield curve—generates more reliable clues for projecting the equity risk premium for medium- and long-term horizons. But what may be even more significant is the evidence that links these clues to the business cycle.
Consider carefully how you use projections in building your clients' financial plans. Complicated analytics may seem beneficial, but there is a lot of wisdom in simple metrics like "target rate of return."
The fourth-quarter GDP report was explosive, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is 30% undervalued. However, the market can stay undervalued for a long, long time. There are two confirming indicators that can help you decide when it's safe to jump back into equities—and when it's prudent to stay out.
The 200-day simple moving average can help you determine what the trend of the market is, especially when it's coupled with some fundamental analysis. An advisor looks at recent developments and notes that although bears have the edge, bullish trends are also in play.
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