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Whether you lean toward bullish or bearish market views with clients, you can back up either argument—and a contingent investment strategy—with the fact-based approaches of these two renowned economists.
Stocks in the long run are just as risky as stocks in the short run, says one prominent finance professor. He recommends investing 90% of the retirement portfolio in TIPS and 10% in call options. Another alternative may be to invest the 10% in high beta assets. They are simpler to use than call options, and they never expire.
Traditionally, we've built portfolios based on the idea that an investor with a longer time horizon can handle the risk of a larger allocation to equities. However, the order of returns—whether they come late in the holding period or early—can make stocks just as risky 20 years out as they are today.
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